Avian Flu Preparedness
A.B.C. News asks, "Is the Government Ready for an Epidemic?"
In light of recent events highlighting government inability to respond to domestic emergencies, this question deserves much higher priority than it's getting.
The Bush Administration just announced $7.1 billion worth of half-measures, apparently hoping the epidemic will hit on someone else's watch.
Don't count on it.
Most of the measures announced so far will take years to implement, assuming they are followed up on by the next administration. For example, tens of millions of doses of the anti-viral medicine, "Tamiflu" cannot be delivered in less than 18 months no matter how much cash the president throws at the French manufacturer. The capacity to produce the drug is constrained because the factories do not yet exist to meet the worldwide demand. Even if new factories were to go online tomorrow, the complicated, time-consuming process of making the drug would prevent speedy delivery.
The magazine Scientific American carried a special report, Preparing for a Pandemic , in the November, 2005 issue. They said, "Scientists cannot predict which influenza strain will cause a pandemic or when the next one will break out. They can warn only that another is bound to come and that the conditions now seem ripe, with a fierce strain of avian flu killing people in Asia and infecting birds in a rapid westward lunge toward Europe."
Of course, in the United States, the lead responsibility for public health resides at the state level; just as the lead for disaster preparedness rested on the shoulders of state and local officials like Louisiana governor Blanco .
In nations with systems of Universal Healthcare, national officials are in a better position to oversee preparations. For example, the United States is nowhere near the top of the list of customers in line to get the drug Tamiflu; other countries beat us to the punch. In addition, according to Scientific American, Australia, Britain, France and other European governments are negotiating contracts with vaccine producers to ensure supplies of vaccine will be equitably distributed when it becomes available. The United States is not.
Of course, if the predicted pandemic arrives in the next few years, no country will be fully prepared.
But we have to ask, would a system that allows universal access to routine medical care such as flu shots fare better than a system that denies millions of people access to that same care? Does the uninsured population of 45 million in our nation represent a vast Petri dish for the cultivation of deadly diseases?
The experts view a new influenza pandemic as inevitable; the question is not, "Will it happen?" but, "When."
What frightens this writer is the uncanny prescience of Scientific American.
In 2001, they published an article about a potential disaster. They described, in great detail, exactly how complacency and penny-pinching had rendered us vulnerable to a catastrophe with vast property destruction and significant loss of life. A catastrophe that we predicted, that we knew was only a matter of "when," not "if."
The title of that report was, "Drowning New Orleans."
In light of recent events highlighting government inability to respond to domestic emergencies, this question deserves much higher priority than it's getting.
The Bush Administration just announced $7.1 billion worth of half-measures, apparently hoping the epidemic will hit on someone else's watch.
Don't count on it.
Most of the measures announced so far will take years to implement, assuming they are followed up on by the next administration. For example, tens of millions of doses of the anti-viral medicine, "Tamiflu" cannot be delivered in less than 18 months no matter how much cash the president throws at the French manufacturer. The capacity to produce the drug is constrained because the factories do not yet exist to meet the worldwide demand. Even if new factories were to go online tomorrow, the complicated, time-consuming process of making the drug would prevent speedy delivery.
The magazine Scientific American carried a special report, Preparing for a Pandemic , in the November, 2005 issue. They said, "Scientists cannot predict which influenza strain will cause a pandemic or when the next one will break out. They can warn only that another is bound to come and that the conditions now seem ripe, with a fierce strain of avian flu killing people in Asia and infecting birds in a rapid westward lunge toward Europe."
Of course, in the United States, the lead responsibility for public health resides at the state level; just as the lead for disaster preparedness rested on the shoulders of state and local officials like Louisiana governor Blanco .
In nations with systems of Universal Healthcare, national officials are in a better position to oversee preparations. For example, the United States is nowhere near the top of the list of customers in line to get the drug Tamiflu; other countries beat us to the punch. In addition, according to Scientific American, Australia, Britain, France and other European governments are negotiating contracts with vaccine producers to ensure supplies of vaccine will be equitably distributed when it becomes available. The United States is not.
Of course, if the predicted pandemic arrives in the next few years, no country will be fully prepared.
But we have to ask, would a system that allows universal access to routine medical care such as flu shots fare better than a system that denies millions of people access to that same care? Does the uninsured population of 45 million in our nation represent a vast Petri dish for the cultivation of deadly diseases?
The experts view a new influenza pandemic as inevitable; the question is not, "Will it happen?" but, "When."
What frightens this writer is the uncanny prescience of Scientific American.
In 2001, they published an article about a potential disaster. They described, in great detail, exactly how complacency and penny-pinching had rendered us vulnerable to a catastrophe with vast property destruction and significant loss of life. A catastrophe that we predicted, that we knew was only a matter of "when," not "if."
The title of that report was, "Drowning New Orleans."
posted by Mike at 7:47 PM
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